Arsenal have the “easiest” run-in, but what does that mean, really?

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Nothing, really. In an ideal world, you’re facing a bunch of sides that are comfortably mid-table with nothing to play for, nothing to gain, nothing to lose. In the real world, you end up facing numerous sides fighting for a continental spot, whether that be Champions League, Europa League, or, yes, Europa Conference League. At the other end of that same spectrum you end up facing sides fighting to stave off relegation. Each of the three main contenders—Liverpool, Man City, and Arsenal—face a that malicious mélange to varying degrees.

First things first—while we currently boast the second-easiest run-in among the three, Man City’s run-in emerges as even easier after they visit Anfield, host us, and host Villa. From there, they face a slew of teams whose players are probably already sizing up summer vacations at various exotic locations. Yes, they go to Tottenham and close the season at home to West Ham and away to Brighton, but they’re otherwise looking to fatten up on those mid-table sides more concerned with summer plans than with run-in exertions. I’d have to say that, once they emerged from those first three matches, Man City might just commence their annual, mirthless death-march toward the top of the table. We can only hope that one or more of Liverpool, Arsenal, or Aston Villa take more than two points off of them.

Liverpool arguably have the toughest road to hoe with what looks like seven matches against clubs with something to play for at either end of the table. Of course, if they continue to get the kind of preferential treatment that they got against Forest, it won’t really matter who they face. It might even be a refreshing change of pace to see this Klopp-led side finally win another Prem title (and, I have to admit, I’m so tired of Man City winning everything that I’ve reached a point of wanting to see anyone else, even Liverpool, hoist that trophy). What I’ll insist on is that they earn it on merits, and their result against Forest does not meet that standard.

As for us, perhaps we do have the easiest run-in. Yes, it includes a potentially cataclysmic trip to the Etihad in three week’s time, but it also includes a visit from Aston Villa and trips to face Tottenham and Man U. Our remaining fixtures consist of clashes with sides comfortably mid-table. While that’s not the same as knowing that we’ll take all three each time, the chances are good.

A lot hinges on this weekend’s clash between Liverpool and Man City. We have to hope that they share a point while seeing numerous players see red cards for violent conduct that doesn’t result in injury to anyone. Should one or the other win, our path to Prem glory would become incalculably more difficult. For ourselves, we have to know that future fixtures won’t be nearly as easy as the cakewalks we’ve enjoyed in recent weeks. Yes, we’ve padded our goal-difference (and that could prove to be crucial in the end).

At a risk of stating the obvious, we simply can’t afford to drop points. The only exception to that rule might be when we go to the Etihad. If City and Liverpool share a point from this weekend’s clash, we might find a path forward via a draw from our visit to the Eithad. If City defeat Liverpool, we’ll probably have to defeat City to keep alive any chance of winning the Prem.

Long story short, we find ourselves juggling a fair number of flaming swords. We’ll have to see how that climactic clash at Anfield plays out. The outcome won’t offer much clarity, but it might just allow us to do some back-of-the-envelope maths on what happens next.

Of course, none of that matters unless we can win each and every match between now and the Ides of May.

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6 thoughts on “Arsenal have the “easiest” run-in, but what does that mean, really?

    1. Jon Shay Post author

      Our average league position is the lowest of the three, and, while it’s true that we have some tricky away fixtures, none of them feels particularly imposing. The bloom is off of Ante’s rose, and Man U look even more of a mess than ever. That said, we’re going to need both Liverpool and City to drop more points than we drop (I don’t see any of us running the table from now to mid-May). Sadly, then, we don’t control our destiny at this point.

      Reply
    2. Eoin ó Conchobhair

      Liverpool have Man U, Tottenham, and Villa away. Fulham will also be tricky. Everton might still be fighting to avoid relegation. That makes their away fixtures seem far tricker than ours

      Reply
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