At long last, we know which clubs have finished second and are eligible to be drawn against us in the Champions League knockout stage. While the draw won’t happen until Monday, 12 December, it’s not too early to size up the potential opposition. For ourselves, we’re among the younger squads to progress, and, what’s more, we’re short on experience at this level. I hope it’s not too immodest to suggest that I’d like to see us get a draw as favourable as we got from the group stage…
Among other milestones, it’s reassuring to re-establish an old, paradoxical custom, that of hoping that our domestic opponents progress deep into European competitions in order to sap their strength in the Prem while we progress deep into European competition in order to win both continentally and domestically. It’s best not to overthink that, if we’re being honest with ourselves.
Sizing up our potential opponents, the easiest path forward goes through Copenhagen, Porto, or Lazio—in other words, Man City will draw one of them, thereby all but guaranteeing that they advance. Then again, Copenhagen have developed an affinity for Manc blood, having won 4-3 at home. To see the Byens Hold topple the Citizens would rival David vs. Goliath for epic upsets.
Sides to avoid would include, well, just about everyone else. RB Leipzig, Napoli, Inter, and PSG all intimidate me to various degrees. Is that rational? I can’t be sure. RB Leipzig (94 UEFA coefficient, 4th in the Bundesliga) have me frightened. Inter (99 UEFA coefficient, 1st in Serie A) have me needing a change of undergarment. Napoli (79 UEFA coefficient, 6th in Serie A)? I feel like we could handle them. PSG (102 UEFA coefficient, first in Ligue 1)? Again, strangely, I don’t feel as intimidated. It’s not rational; I know.
Speaking of rational, it’s probably an unpopular opinion, but I don’t see us winning the Champions League this time.
MUFC tank our coefficient to make it harder to qualify next season. Off the top of my head, there are six clubs that are clearly ahead of us—Bayern, Barcelona, Atletico, Real Madrid, Dortmund, and Man City. Whomever we draw for the knockout stage, we’ll almost assuredly draw one of those for the quarter-final and definitely for the semifinal and/or final. We’re growing and expanding, but the gap, I’m sorry to say, is still more of a chasm, and there’s at best a very shaky rope-bridge spanning it. Let the chips fall where they may.
Before we part ways, let’s spare a thought for poor, down-trodden opponents. Newcastle and Man U both finished in the basement of their respective groups. While Newcastle could at least blame a Group Of Death that included Dortmund, PSG, and AC Milan, Man U have no such excuse. While their exclusion from any continental competition whatsoever will help them focus on the Prem and FA Cup, their dismal performances will only lower the Prem’s coefficient, potentially making it harder for either of them to qualify for Champions League or even Europa League competition next season. They’re currently vying with Tottenham, Brighton, West Ham, and maybe even Fulham for a top-five finish.
I’m not a spiteful man, but, between Scylla and Charybdis, I do try to find the middle ground. We’re not going to win the Champions League this season unles by divine intervention. I want us to progress as far as possible, but I’m not blind to the fact that our own progress might help Man U and Newcastle as they fight like crabs in a bucket to qualify for next season’s Champions League or Europa League. If we draw one of the less-desirable opponents for the knockout stage, I won’t fuss.
Obviously, I want us to win on all fronts, but this is a shaky rope-bridge too far. Let’s see who we’re drawn against for the knockout stage, play both legs, and go from there. Everything else is water off a duck’s back, at least for now…
ScillA and Charybdis again? Did I mention my father before….
just a couple quick points:
(1) don’t let anyone’s “triggering” issues deter you from using any contextually appropriate analogies…it’s clear to any sober-minded individual you haven’t intentionally tried to ruffle feathers, minus those of opposing fanbases, and you certainly have never shown yourself to be a callous individual, in fact quite the opposite, so for the love of god stay your course…not everyone can be the “sun”
(2) I would suggest that there might never be a better year to make a serious CL run, in light of the transitory nature of many of the traditionally dominant clubs…Real, Barca, PSG, Bayern and even City are all vulnerable and definitely beatable…that said, we can’t repeat the mistakes of the more recent past and stand pat/underwhlem come January, or we’ll almost assuredly suffer a similar fate…it’s time to put our chips in the middle and buy a couple seminal pieces, even if it might cost us a bit over the long-term…frankly, if handled correctly, which certainly isn’t a given, we just might find ourselves in the driver’s seat for an epic run on two fronts…the only potential stumbling blocks we face are (1) if our absentee landlord is skittish about further backing the manager, due to some poor transfer decisions, and (2) our static tactical philosophy, neither of which are unsurmountable…in regards to the former, Kroenke has already adopted a “chips in” MO with both the Rams and Nuggets, and to some degree with the Avalanche, so recent history is on our side, whereas with latter, if we get the “right” players, MA might just grow a pair, tactically-speaking
btw several pundits/prognosticators have us as in the top 4-5 when it comes to the last 16
Once we get past Jon having spent too much time as a Classics scholar, let us consider his career as a time traveler. I have yet to check whether he travelled back in time or forward, and were he one of the never-revealed Dr Who incarnations(assuming he is not the Master), it might be either option to a time when the draw was or will be on Monday December 12th. Unfortunately, this year it is Monday Dec 18 and so maybe Arsenal’s chances are better in that alternate or future world.