Category Archives: Napoli

Vermaelen to Vanchester continues to vex Wenger…

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As we prepare to face Benfica in the Emirates Cup, there’s a lot of talk of who we will and won’t see. We won’t see Mertesacker, Podolski, or Özil, who are resting; nor will we see Walcott, Ospina, or Sanogo, who are injured. We may or may not see Alexis, Debuchy, or Chambers. Another Gunner is listed as injured, but this might be a gambit of sorts related to a potential transfer. We won’t see Thomas Vermaelen, our nominal captain, because he apparently has picked up an injury. He’s not in any pictures of the squad training, for what that’s worth. Has the time come for Tom to be gone?

All signs point to yes. He’s not been a good enough defender for us for some time now, playing at centre-back only when injuries or suspensions to others allow it. We arguably got better centre-back play from Sagna in the few instances he slotted over than when Vermaelen was playing his preferred position. Deployed at left-back and right-back at times, the man has been reduced to an afterthought for both club and country. At his age (28), he surely wants first-team action. It’s unlikely he’ll get it at Arsenal. Per and Kos partner too well together, and the arrival of Chambers suggests that Arsène is looking beyond Vermaelen for our centre-backs going forward. 
He’d be the ideal signing for Man U. For one, they’ve lost a great of experience and skill from last season’s defense, with Evra, Ferdinand, Vidic, and Buttner gone. Smalling, Jones, and Evans are sure to step up, but Van Gaal needs to re-load, and fast. Under Van Gaal, Vermaelen would likely thrive. He’s the kind of forward-thinking defender that would fit in well with Van Gaal’s system.  With Vermaelen’s market-value sliding ever-downward, it’s probably in our best interests to unload him, even if this means we have to find a replacement. We’ve been lucky that neither Per nor Kos has succumbed to serious injury woes, but luck always run out at some point. Much as I might like to blithely say that Chambers can simply slide over or that Djourou is ready for a triumphant return, we really should have a third high-quality centre-back, perhaps even a fourth.

I know that the idea of reading another round of headlines bleating “Arsenal lose ANOTHER captain to Man U” could be painful, but this is hardly the same ball of wax. It’s been clear for some time that Vermaelen can’t crack our starting line-up, not as a centre-back, not as a right- or left-back, and not, as is so often suggested, as a defensive-midfielder. So he might as well be on his way to a club that needs his services but perhaps has lower amibitions. Man U appears to fit that bill quite nicely. However, if we are to sell to a league-rival, we should extract as much out of them as we can. Vermaelen’s market-value hovers somewhere in the £12m range. If Man U want him, they can have him—for £25m. If they stick to £12m, we insist on getting Kagawa as make-weight.

After all, Man U’s need for an experienced, familiar-with-the-Prem centre-back, coupled with Van Gaal’s system, make Vermaelen the perfect centre-back for their needs. All the more reason to sell the man on—to Barcelona or Napoli. I don’t mind losing Vermaelen. He had his moments, both good and bad, but we’re not content to finish fourth (not that we ever were). We have serious designs on winning the Prem, and I can’t quite convince myself that he’s the captain or the centre-back we need to get us there. He’s taking his lumps about as well as anyone can, and out of respect to his loyalty, if not his quality, we should send him somewhere where he can actually play. All the best to you, Tommy.

Bring on Bayern! (or anyone else, for that matter)

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Well, it wasn’t the kind of second-leg away-win we’ve delivered recently, but the 2-0 loss at Napoli was enough to see us through to the next round. It may feel less glorious than winning 2-0 at Bayern, but this scoreline did secure progress to the next round. Now that the dust is settled, we can appreciate that element of it. Be honest with yourself. When the groups were announced, did you assume that we would advance easily, or did you worry that we’d get knocked out? I’ll admit that I was more worried, and I’m an optimist. We’re through. For an extra bit of satisfaction, we’ve knocked out a club whose supporters have earned a thuggish reputation—of course, we all remember the attack on Piebury Corner before the first leg, the attack that hospitalized a 48-year old man. Their supporters also clashed with French riot police. There have been enough incidents that UEFA considered closing the second leg to fans. I know that Napoli’s fanbase doesn’t have a monopoly on this kind of behavior, and that all clubs have some knuckleheads in their midst, but given Napoli’s fans’ recent history, I’m more than happy to dump them from the Champions League.

At any rate, that’s done and dusted, and we can now think about who we’ll face next. It might have been nice to have won the group and then draw from AC Milan, Schalke, Zenit, Olympiakos, Galatasaray, or Leverkusen. As it stands, we’ll draw from Barca, Bayern, Real Madrid, Atletico, or PSG. Of course, we can’t face Man U or Man City because we all represent the Prem, and we can’t draw Dortmund because we’re both from Group F. The same factors increase the chances that Bayern will again be our next opponent. Whereas Barca, Real Madrid, Atletico, and PSG could face one of seven different opponents, Bayern has only five opponents to draw—us, AC Milan, Zenit, Olympiakos, or Galatasaray. For Bayern, fellow Bundesligans Schalke, Dortmund, and Leverkusen are out, and so is Group D runner-up Man City. I’ll spare you the rest of the algebra (you can find the breakdown from @2010MisterChip. I’m using his stats; he deserves the credit). Suffice it to say, Bayern emerges as our most-likely opponent, a 30.798% chance compared to 17.301% of drawing each of the others.

So be it. One does not simply walk into the Champions League and so on, and we’re going to have to face some of the big boys at some point or another. Interestingly, we seem to be overlooking the idea that we are one of the big boys. By virtue of qualifying, we’re one of the best 16 or so clubs in the world. By virtue of our performance, we might count as one of the top ten, maybe even the top-five clubs in the world. For now, at least. Last season, we might have been seen as one of the weakest group-stage runners-up. This time ’round, of course, we’re as in-form as we’ve been in a long time (even including this loss and the Everton draw), and it’s a form that stretches all the way back to March. We emerged from the toughest group, a group in which 12 points wasn’t enough to advance. AC Milan advanced with six points. Gala? Seven. Zenit? Six—while sporting a -4 goal-differential. There oughta be a law against that. Anyway, whoever avoids us will heave a sigh of relief, and whoever draws us knows that it may have just met its match. We’ll see.

Speaking after the match, Arsène had this to say of the draw (which takes place Monday):

We will see what comes out of the draw and will assess that in February because a lot can change on both sides, on us and the team we play against, so we need to put that to the back of our minds now and focus on the championship.

Well-said, public language champion. We’ll take a closer look at our next opponent after the draw. For now, we have a trip to the Etihad to prepare for and a visit from Chelsea the following weekend to boot. One match at a time…

Before you leave off, thanks for your visit. If you have a preference of whom you’d most like to face, weigh in in the comments-section below. Thanks!

Arsenal 0-2 Napoli: killing the Group of Death

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Okay, okay, okay. I was wrong, and it isn’t the first time, nor will it be the last. I predicted a 2-0 win with goals from Giroud and Walcott. Giroud very nearly scored early on, but Walcott didn’t even see the pitch except from the bench. So it goes. In the end, we backed our way into the knockout stage and by a narrower-than-necessary margin. A 3-0 scoreline would have sent Napoli through and relegated us to playing Spursdays in the Europa; as it ends up, we eked out a victory that, while less than inspiring, extends a fourteen-year streak of advancing past the group-stage.

It didn’t have to be this way, Gonzo…

Speaking of group-stages, when the draw was announced, the term “group of death” was bandied about. It’s a sign of how much progress we’ve made since then that, instead of fretting about whether we’d qualify at all, we’re now griping about finishing second in the group. Such has been our form that we’ve come to expect the caviar-esque first-place finish as if it’s a birthright, and to fall short of that is not the travesty or the tragedy that some are making it out to be. Yes, I know that I stomped my own feet and insisted that we should play to win, and it doesn’t seem like we quite did that, but we’re through. We’re hardly the first squad to squeak through to the next round.

Yes, the draw for the knockout is a bit tougher than it might have been, but the whole point of the Champions League is that there are very few cake-walks. We’ll be drawn against PSG, Bayern, Real Madrid, Barcelona, or Atletico Madrid. Six months ago, a few of those names would have struck fear in my heart. Heck, I even asked why we should bother trying against Bayern only to eat my words.

At some point or another, after all, we’re going to have to beat one or more of those clubs if we’re to win the Champions League. The fact that the bell tolls for us a round earlier than we might have preferred is perhaps unfortunate, but it doesn’t fundamentally change the equation. Going into the season, I’d wager that most of us saw the knockout stage itself as a distant goal, and anything beyond that as pure gravy. Well, we’ve transcended those meager hopes, and the curse of it is that we have come to see a wish as a guarantee, and the achievement of that goal now seems a bit tarnished. Rather than rue an opportunity lost, why not, for once, celebrate an opportunity seized?

There’s a pathology at work here, a self-loathing of sorts, that prevents us from admitting progress or quality. On its face, yes, we lost and let slip an opportunity to face Bayer Leverkusen, Galatasaray, Olympiakos, Schalke 04, Zenit St. Petersburg, or AC Milan—but these are no slouches. Yes, we’ve finished second in the group and will face stiffer competition in the knockout, but it’s still miles ahead of where we might have predicted a few months ago.

At the start of the season, even after the Özil signing, few of us would have been so bold as to predict a Champions League title. If we crash out in the knockout, so be it. My sights are set on the Prem League. This may change should we bring in a striker in January, be he cup-tied or not.  It would have been nice to send notice to our rivals, Prem or otherwise, but when you’re competing at this level, there’s not a lot of fear to be instilled in those rivals. I don’t think anyone in Barcelona, Paris, or Munich is feeling calmer thanks to this scoreline. If anything, they’re looking at the full tapestry we’ve woven so far and wondering why they may be so unfortunate as to draw us. After all, we’re almost certainly the most threatening draw for those first-place finishers. I’m not saying we’re a top-flight squad by any means, but we have beaten last year’s UCL champion and runner-up.

Go ahead, then, and celebrate the loss. Ironic though it may be, it was enough, just enough, to see us through to the next round. Yeah, it complicates the fixtures for February and March (and beyond?) but that’s an embarrassment of riches. So be it. 

Will it be Giroud or will it be Walcott who scores? Both? Neither?

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I don’t quite like making home-and-away comparisons for matches, especially when so much time has passed, but it’s hard to resist looking back to our 2-0 win over Napoli as we prepare for today’s second leg. It was arguably our most impressive performance to date, as we went ahead early and dominated the rest of the match. However, the advantages of playing at home, not to mention having more time adjust to their new manager or the urgency of needing to win, should feed Napoli’s performance today. However, if we can exploit Napoli’s weaknesses, we should be able to reproduce that successful outcome if not the dominating performance itself. As we look for goals, there are two factors, and two players, I look to: will it be Giroud exploiting Napoli on set-pieces and crosses, or will it be Walcott running rampant behind that high line and left flank?

The case for Giroud
Napoli’s frailty on set-pieces and aerial duels has seen them concede goals frequently, such as when they twice conceded goals from corners to draw at home to Udinese—who are a shadow of the team we faced in 2011. Between Reina and the backline, none emerges as particularly strong in the air. If we can get the ball into the box, whether from corners, spot-kicks, or crosses, Giroud should find plenty of chances for headers or his trade-mark near-post tips. After all, the second goal against Napoli came from Giroud, who timed a run to the center of the box to slot home a pass from Özil—not quite a cross, of course, as it came from just outside the six-yard box, but enough to suggest that Giroud will be able to find space and present a target for teammates to send balls into. He has a tidy height advantage over all of Liverpool Napoli’s backline, including Reina, and his intelligent movement and strength in the air should result in more than a few goal-scoring opportunities.

The case for Walcott
Against Napoli, both of our goals came from the left flank as sharp interplay overwhelmed what seemed to be a disorganized or discombobulated defense. It doesn’t seem as if matters have improved much as Napoli have conceded eight goals in their last three matches as opponents have exploited their high line. Speaking of exploiting high lines, I hope we’ll see Walcott start; if not, I hope he comes on soon after halftime. Teams have been finding plenty of space behind them for quick counters. The space they’re condeding between the defense and keeper should have Walcott chomping at the bit, and just as we exploited the left side of Napoli’s defense the first time around, we should find similar opportunities. It’s not as if Napoli adjust this tactic against superior opposition known for launching counter-attacks; witness their 3-1 loss to Dortmund. If Walcott makes an appearance, it’s not just through counters that he’ll find opportunities. His ability to get behind defenders and to run into space should be enough to give him chances to put shots on goal or lay off to teammates as the defense gets stretched out of space.

Splitting the difference
Between the two of them, assuming both get to play, I hope I know what I’m talking about and each man will have his chances and makes the most of them. Napoli is sure to press hard for the entire match, knowing that they need three goals to leap-frog us, and this will present a lot of opportunities for us on the counter. This might favor Walcott, but it could also generate fouls and corners as Napoli attempt to regroup. It should make for some gripping action, that’s for sure.

Amid all of the talk of not losing by three goals, we’ve lost sight of the idea that we’re still on a fine run of form that has seen us concede just two goals in our last eight matches while facing some high-octane offenses, and we haven’t conceded more than two goals since opening day. Aside from the trip to Old Trafford, we’ve scored in every match in which we’ve fielded a full-strength squad. I don’t see us breaking either of those trends today.

So who’s it going to be—Walcott, Giroud, both, or neither? Your thoughts below the fold…

Napoli Preview: lies, damned lies, and statistics

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I never thought I’d go into a match having to toss over so many permutations. Can we look to Dortmund to draw or lose at toothless Marseille, or will we have to assume that Dortmund will win, putting them at 12 points in the group, thereby forcing us to do better than a 3-0 loss to Napoli in order to advance on goal-differential among the teams level on points, goals against Marseille excluded? After all, should we lose to Napoli and Dortmund win, the three of us finish at 12 points, and it comes down to goal-differential. UEFA’s rule 6.05b. says that, in the event that two or more teams finish level on points, the tie-break comes down to “superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams in question”. In other words, goals against Marseille don’t matter.

On that score, then, Dortmund has to win but can do little else. They’re in a position of relative strength, though, as they are +3 in matches against Arsenal and Napoli. We’re at +2 at the moment, and Napoli are at -3. Hence the reference to statistics. If Napoli can win 3-0, they go to a goal-differential of zero and we fall to -1, and rule 6.05.b sends them through. I assume that Dortmund will take care of business in Marseille, winless in the group and thirteen points adrift of the lead in Ligue 1. Last I checked, we were revelling in a certain Mancunian club being thirteen points off our pace. In other words, Dortmund looks certain to get to 12 points, thereby applying pressure to us.

Here’s where my irritation comes in. Despite a fine run of form to end last season and begin this one, we’re still pulling out every abacus we can find to determine just how well we must play or how poorly we can afford to play and still advance. We’re a shoddy refereeing job and a lucky shouldered goal away from being invincible, and here we are scrabbling around to understand the in’s and out’s of how to qualify. It bespeaks a certain lack of confidence, one understandably borne from seasons of frustration but that in no way reflects our performance on the pitch. So we drew with Everton this weekend. Does that mean that we’ve somehow lost our verve, that we’re staggering, reeling, about to fall to the mat?

Nope.

This is not the Arsenal of the last four or five years, limping across the finish line in fourth place yet again. It’s not even the Arsenal of seven months ago, needing a desperate goal in the final match of the season to secure a fourth-place finish. We’re playing with vim and vigor these days, thanks to the chemistry and camaraderie forged in last season’s cauldron and brought to boil by the current squad’s form, stoked by Ramsey and Giroud and Szczesny and Özil and so many others—it’s a team-effort.

With that in mind, I’m done with calculating the various permutations of how we can back-door our way into the Champions League knockout stage. That’s not who we are. I’m not going to stomp my feet and demand that we trounce Napoli, but I will ask that we set aside the spreadsheets and focus on playing a little bit of football. We did deliver one of our finest performances of the season when they came to town, for what that’s worth.

It’s a measure of the gap between our recently depressed expectations and the current form we’re in. The pessimism that has seeped in prevents us from fully recognizing that, yes, we are legitimate contenders in the Prem and perhaps in the Champions League as well. As such, we resort to looking for the loopholes in UEFA rules instead of simply believing that we’ll advance. I don’t care to assess the odds of various outcomes and the maths involved, not because I’m blithely arrogant about us but because I’ve seen enough of us in action this season and in seasons past to recognize that we’re better than that. We’re not great—that kind of designation is usually awarded retroactively—but we’re pretty damned good, good enough to see a positive result at the Stadio San Paolo.

Hell, the last time we traveled to Italy, it was to deliver a 3-0 smack-down of AC Milan. For those still quibbling over goal-differentials and points and UEFA regulations, take that to heart. Yes, that rally fell short, but we’ve shuttled those who bottled out their chances (van Persie, Gervinho), but we don’t quite need the historic rally this time ’round.

Still, I don’t see us backing our way through the door to the next round. I’ll stop short of calling for a repeat of recent UCL away-legs (we have, after all, won at Dortmund, at Marseille, and at Bayern), but I do believe that we have the cojones to see ourselves through regardless of what happens in Marseille. We tore into their left flank the first time around, and that was without Walcott available to run behind their defenders. A goal from Walcott, who could have a field day running behind Napoli’s high line and left flank, and maybe one from Giroud, should see us through.