There was an intriguing 18 minutes there on Thursday when we could dare to dream that Sheffield United might hold Liverpool to a 1-1 draw at Anfield only for that dream to crash against the cold, hard rock of reality. Of course, we can’t control Liverpool’s fixtures and will have to focus on our own. Facing Brighton, home or away, is always tricky; the Seagulls have won three and drawn two of the last six. De Zerbi has a long list of injuries to ponder, but that’s no reason for us to waltz on in assuming it’ll be a cakewalk.
Among those ruled out are Mitoma, Marsh, Hinshelwood, Milner, and Gilmour; Ferguson faces a late fitness test. There’s also the not-insignificant distraction looming over the club as Liverpool and Bayern are apparently circling as De Zerbi ponders his future. Whether he has one eye on those prospects, one foot out the door, or his entire focus on his current club is a quandary worth considering. On the other hand, the recent return to fitness of leading goal-scorer João Pedro could very well give the Seagulls a much-needed boost.
Again, we can’t and shouldn’t underestimate our hosts. Brighton are undefeated in their last 12 at AmEx (6W 6D), and even if most of the matches have been against mid-table or relegation-stragglers, that’s an enviable streak. They did beat Tottenham 4-2 on Boxing Day and Newcastle 3-1 in September back when that might have felt more significant. At home, they’re a tough nut to crack, conceding just 16 goals in 14 matches, fifth-lowest in the Prem. This may or may not complicate our own recent “drought” since our February Glut O’ GoalsTM; we’ve scored just five in our last four outings. Even if that includes a strategic scoreless draw at the Etihad, a bit of doubt may linger. After all, we scored “just’ two goals at home against Luton when we might have or should have expected to score several more.
Saka’s absence on Wednesday may have been a factor, as was Arteta’s willingness to rotate. Our starboy may not be fully fit for this match either; even if he is, it might be worth resting him (or at least not starting him) as we keep one eye of our own on Bayern’s Tuesday visit. A front three that includes Martinelli, Havertz, and Nelson could ask all sorts of uncomfortable questions for De Zerbi’s defense. Behind them, Rice, Jorginho (or perhaps Partey), and Ødegaard should be able to control the midfield; the only other considerations might be Zinchenko or Kiwior on the left and White or Tomiyasu on the right. Whomever Arteta goes with, they should have enough in their respective toolkits to handle Brighton’s pressing and attack.
It of course goes without saying that it’s vital to our title-tile that we seize all three points. Liverpool go to Old Trafford and Man City go to Selhurst Park. Neither is likely to lose. With that in mind, I see us escaping the Amex with an 0-2 scoreline, goals from Havertz and Rice making the difference. Share your own predictions below the fold!
good write up John. I’m sure DeZerbi will set up to defend doggedly even his sides are usually more aggressive. Those injuries make it harder for him to play that way. If we defend like we’ve done, keeping a clean sheet is possible if not guaranteed. I don’t think we’ll score two goals, maybe just one will do the trick?
I’m more optimistic. The draw at the Etihad not only boosts our confidence, I bet it also forced Brighton’s players to notice. Yes they know we’re title chasers but we’re legit this time thru.
Jon, I’d start Saka but take him off at the half.
BHA 0-3 Arsenal
We need as many goals possible in our first leg against Bayern, and just a win over BHA, so leave Saka out for this one.
I agree. If he’s been carrying a knock, we should rest him. Even if Bayern have a half-dozen injuries and won’t have their away-fans, Kane loves to score against us. We’ll have to be at our best, and we should still be strong enough against BHA without Saka.
Let’s also leave Havertz out, regardless of what he may bring to the table. I watched that stupid dive in the Luton match and think we still have someone, much like Xhaka who kept committing unnecessary penalties for years. A bit of juggling to include ESR and, maybe Martinelli, Thomas, and Jesus, should do the trick.
You do have a point there. Maybe Martinelli-Jesus-Nelson up top with Rice/Partey/Odegaaard in the. midfield. If Havertz can make it to matchday 32, he won’t have to worry about the yellow cards.
Watched the Pool 2-1 BHA match last week– and Brighton is down to bare bones in attack. Danny Welbeck up top with little service. Not sure a semi-fit Ferguson gives or gets much better.
Will say the Gulls handled the Red’s press well– playing out with bravado. But Liverpool ended up with 30 shots– a number if Arsenal were to match– should see us win by a larger margin than 2-1.
The return of Joao Pedro might give them more options in attack. We certainly can’t rely on Danny “he’s one of our own” Welbeck. For as much as I enjoy seeing an Irishman thrive, Ferguson is still far too callow, and his early season hype has dried up just as much as his goal-scoring.
Your last point about shots conceded is indeed telling. Credit De Zerbi for playing aggressive, positive football even when of his best options via transfers or injuries. Should we end up taking even 20 shots, I’d agree that we might do better than scoring twice.
Took a look and confirmed what I had a notion about– of Joao Pedro’s 19 goals all comps 2023-24?
TEN have been PENS!
So, long as we don’t foul in our own box– I think we’re safer than the numbers show at first glance.
wow, that’s enough to turn Cole Palmer (8 pens scored) green with envy. None of our defenders is particularly foul-prone, so that should offer us some comfort. Still, the proof will be in the playing…