Category Archives: QPR

Time to sign Julio Cesar

In a highly scientific and rigorous poll conducted at this very site, Julio Cesar has firmly vanquished all other candidates for the role of #1 keeper for the 2013-14 year. Over the course of a grueling two-day election, thousands dozens of votes were cast, delivering Cesar a resounding victory as he gathered 55% of votes cast. In a crowded, four-candidate contest run on American-style “winner takes all” election rules, the only logical outcome is that Cesar will be the keeper for all of our matches next year. Had this been more of a proportional representation-type system used by just about every other democracy in existence, we could keep Szczesny while also signing Mignolet and allotting games to them based on the proportion of the vote they had received. Results of the poll are here, if you still want to cast your vote and change the outcome.

all stats courtesy of whoscored.com

Alas, this is only one winner, and according to those who voted, Cesar will have no choice but to be our keeper next year.

But should we really go for him? Is he still capable of the form he showed with playing for Inter a few years ago? After all, he’s 33, hardly ancient by keeper standards but getting awfully long in the tooth. He’s no Brad Friedel or Jens Lehmann, playing into their 40s (and more power to them). As far as I can tell, he was released after refusing to lower his salary. This appears to be the same problem that Wesley Sneijder ran into as he left Inter in January to join Galatasaray. As Cesar says here:

Inter suggested that I reduce my salary. No player in my situation would have done that—I am not a hypocrite, and I can talk openly about this. It became a tough situation for both parties.I then spoke to my representative and I thought this was a good choice.I’ll terminate my contract with Inter Milan and thank the president, Massimo Moratti, for the seven wonderful years we have had together.

Straight talk. I like that. Unfortunately for him, his market-value has plummeted from a high of around £20m in 2010 to a current £3.5m or so. Is he worth it, even at that price? He’s several seasons removed from his best performances with Inter, and a quick glance at his stats this year are hardly enough to set one’s heart on fire. However, he did play for QPR, a team so woeful that it only won four games and was outscored by 30 goals on the season. With that as a backdrop, then, we’d be fools not to sign him. Compare his whoscored.com numbers to those of Szczesny’s. Nearly identical whoscored.com ratings. Yes, he has fewer clean sheets and gave up more goals than did Szczesny, but look at how much more he had to do. He had to make more than four saves per game, on average, while Szczesny had to make less than three per game. He conceded far more frequently than Szczesny did, but he faced a veritable firing squad each week, worrying about 16 shots per game (a figure that includes teammates’ blocks, rebounds off the woodwork, and misses) while being the last man standing on a team that only held the ball for 45% of the time and spent 32% of games in its own defensive third. It must have been hard to get motivated at times, going from an Inter squad that won scudettos and the Champions League to a Queens Park Ranger squad that had to fight tooth and nail to escape relegation. But he did it.

What really stands out to me is that, despite the onslaught he faced every week, he still managed to all but match Szczesny in overall effectiveness, separated by two-hundredths of a point. Most impressive to me is how often he was a game-changer as indicated by his two MotM awards and four games with ratings above an 8, including an 8.12 against us back in October when he held us scoreless for 84 minutes before conceding. We’ve rarely come out of a game saying to each other, “man, what a game Szczesny had. He saved our hash tonight”. For all of QPR’s notable failures, it seems that there have been at least a few occasions when they kept a point or stole all three thanks to Cesar.

I’m not saying I actually do want him as our first-choice keeper, but he would prove an strong addition to the squad. Whereas Mannone and Fabianski had to more or less wait for Szczesny to foul up or get injured, Cesar is certainly still skilled enough to challenge Szczesny for playing time in his own right. No one would ask “what does this mean for Szczesny’s future with the club?” when Cesar gets the nod. A second benefit, one that Mignolet (or other keepers close to Szczesny in age or experience), is that Cesar has been around the block a few times. He’s faced Barcelona and Bayern and Chelsea, stopping shots from the likes of Drogba, Ibrahimovic, Robben, Messi, and Henry, among others. Mignolet might have more skill in him, but I’d bet dollars to donuts that Cesar possesses far more secrets, tricks, wisdom, and insights of the kind that more than make up for being a step slower and more than a few hairs grayer than younger keepers. Bringing in a younger keeper might push Szczesny to try harder, but he’d still be fumbling around in the dimliy-lit recesses of his own imagination and experiences. Cesar could illuminate so many aspects to Szczesny, bolstered by real-time demonstrations, that the callow Pole could become a world-class keeper in short order.

He might not be as glamorous a signing as some of the other names we’ve been linked with, but his impact could be far greater, both on the upcoming season and for years after. What do you say? How much do we bid for the Brazilian?

And Southampton delivers! Well, their academy did, anyway…

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I asked for Southampton to do us a solid today in its match against Spurs.

And Southampton complied. Well, sort of…

It wasn’t pretty, but Southampton did its followers proud as two of its most-famous products scored game-winners today, delivering much-needed victory. Too bad that neither of them were playing for Southampton, and even worse that one was playing against Southampton in the form of Gareth Bale, who marked his 200th appearance away from Southampton by scoring in the 86th minute to secure three points for Spurs. For 86 wonderful minutes, then, the Southampton faithful—many of them temporary Gunners converts—were feeling pretty good. The Saints had up ’til then denied Bale and his new team a result, and then…well, you can’t win ’em all. Spurs therefore will keep the pressure on for another week.

It’s therefore quite gratifying that Southampton’s other product, the one I deigned to compare to Bale, outdid his one-time teammate by scoring within the first twenty seconds, less time than it’s taken me to type this very sentence. It was just enough, too, as QPR looked threatening enough to score but for some solid keeping from Szczęsny, especially in the second half. I daresay that he delivered one of his best performances in a while. That it came against the likes of QPR is a bit of an indictment of the ten who played in front of him, but I’ll take the three points just as gladly as I’ll take that kind of showing from the lanky Pole. Absent a hilarious-but-only-because-nothing-came-from-it throw that allowed QPR to take another shot, he was on his game, making a number of key saves and coming off his line intelligently to keep a well-deserved clean sheet. He was tested on a number of occasions and did quite well.

Today, however, will be mostly about Theo. Although he only tallied once, he’s done well enough to earn the “glory” MOTM, a new but important category I’m creating as of this moment. Whereas Arteta and Ramsey should probably share the actual MOTM for their orchestration of defense and attack and while their trench-work laid the foundation for the victory, we would’ve gone home with just one point today were it not for Theo. Podolski looked a bit sluggish out there, but this is not to say that Theo should therefore assume the central role. Indeed, his performance today only further confirms my argument that he continue to play wide. Yes, he scored our only goal, but he was on the verge of scoring a second all afternoon. Four of his five shots were on target, and only decent saves from QPR’s Green kept Theo from a brace or even a hat-trick. Put it this way: Theo had more shots on target than any other teammate even took. Yes, he fell short of my call for an orgy of goals, but it wasn’t for lack of trying.

Just as nice as the goal itself was the manner in which it was scored. The build-up was wonderful, involving no fewer than seven touches before finding Theo, onside (by contrast with last week) and ready to pounce. There will be no questions this week about the goal’s legitimacy or style.

It would have been nice to see a few more goals, and I do feel it was a bit churlish of Ramsey, Podolski, and Cazorla to spurn my request, but three points is three points. I had hoped to compose a rather-smug post in which I mocked Spurs for their inability to close out an inferior opponent; then, I had to settle for a less-smug post in which I mocked Spurs for struggling to close out said opponent. At the end of the day, each of us has had to settle for a win less comfortable than it should have been. Here, then, is to Man U running rough-shod over Chelsea on Sunday.

The race for 4th is as tight as it was at the beginning of the day, but the pressure, momentum, and fixtures continue to favor us. We’ll look forward to a Chelsea loss tomorrow and a draw with Spurs, if not a victory over them, on Wednesday. Last year, 70 points was enough to secure 3rd place. This year might require a few more than that. Thankfully, there are still six points just laying there, waiting for us to seize them.

Spurs-Southampton: Reasons for hope

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At first glance, Southampton’s trip to White Hart Lane looks to be a joyride for Spurs. After all, they come in as the 5th place team in the Prem while Southampton languishes in 13th, still at risk for relegation because Wigan could still mathematically overtake them. Southampton sports a -10 goal-differential on the year; Spurs, +17. Southampton is positively woeful on the road, having taken only 15 of of 51 points, and Spurs have been strong at home, keeping 32 of 51. So far, it’s looking bad for the Saints as they visit White Hart Lane to reconnect with their dearly departed Gareth Bale, set to make his 200th appearance for Spurs, bathed in glory with so many individual accolades this year I’ve quite lost count.

And yet. And yet. Southampton comes in as the 6th-hottest team in the league, having kept 11 of its last 18 points, beating Liverpool and Chelsea in the process, while Spurs have staggered and stumbled, dropping 10 out of its last 18 points. I’m not going so far as to say that anything could happen, but stranger things have happened, like Chelsea losing to Southampton, for example. By the time we arrive at Loftus Road on Saturday, we’ll know how Spurs have done, not that we should need to adjust our intensity either way. Whether Spurs win, lose, or draw, our only acceptable outcome is to win. I’ve called for an orgy of goals, believing we need to resurrect a little of the momentum that had impelled into 3rd momentarily, especially after two consecutive draws.

The more that the pressure builds, the more that nervous Spurs minds will turn to last year as they recall that, as they tried to keep up with our surge, they dropped points to teams like Sunderland (13th last year), Norwich (12th), QPR (17th), and Aston Villa (16th). For all the talk of our fragility or inconsistency, it’s Spurs who can’t handle the pressure. In recent weeks, they’ve dropped points to Wigan (18th) and Fulham (11th), not quite as sloppy as last year but still too careless. In that sense, it’s a bit of a shame that we don’t play first on Saturday. If we could put a proper pasting on QPR, this would only amp up the anxiety at White Hart, making various Spurs players twitchy and tight. However, we’ll have to settle for re-ratcheting the pressure to a fever-pitch for them. It’s after this, after all, that they have to make the trip to Stamford Bridge to face Chelsea on Wednesday for what is sure to be brutal. We’ll know who to root for in that match by late Sunday as Chelsea has to travel to Old Stafford.

In an ideal world, of course, we win while Spurs and Chelsea lose. This puts us at 67 points, 3rd place with two to play, while Chelsea stays at 65, 4th place with three to play, and Spurs remain at 5th with 62 points with three to play. From there, would we root for Chelsea to defeat Spurs, leaving Spurs at 62 with only two matches to play? To seize 4th place, we’d then only need one point from our two remaining matches against Wigan and Newcastle. I’m not enough of a mathematician to dissect the various permutations of what might and could happen, so let’s leave it at that for now. Saints, ruin Bale’s 200th. Rain on his parade. QPR, expect us to be very rude to you when we arrive.

We’ll see where things stand on Saturday night.

Against QPR, Walcott will be unleashed

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Last week, Theo Walcott scored for the first time since January. As we prepare for the run-in against QPR, here’s hoping that that goal has broken the seal on the lad, releasing the pressure to score that has built up ever since he put pen to paper on that new contract in (coincidentally?) January. Even as we await news on the starting line-up, I’m issuing my call for Walcott to start, whether it’s in that central role that he covets so much or out on the wing, where he actually seems to thrive. Wenger has suggested that it will be Podolski who starts at center as he did against Man U. It’s not like Podolski set the world on fire with his performance, but he’s just as good an option for the central role as Walcott, by which I mean “as good as we have”.

Here’s a quick break-down of Walcott’s appearances, courtesy of whoscored.com. As you can see, he’s been very prolific and been so against high-quality opponents like Schalke, Spurs, Everton, Chelsea, Liverpool (yes, Liverpool), and Bayern. That’s an impressive c.v. However, playing from the central role, he’s been less impressive, tallying four goals and two assists in six appearances. Yes, his whoscored rating is a 7.3, similar to his 7.32 rating as an attacking midfielder/wing, but take a closer look: one goal against Reading, and three goals and two assists in that laugher against Newcastle. In short, similar production but against much weaker opponents.

I wish therefore that someone could disabuse Walcott of the notion that (a) he should play more centrally and (b) there’s more glory to be had in that role. Whatever position you play in, a goal creates glory, and he has shown that he can score goals more often from the wide role than from the center. It’s as if he sees the center role as the lead guitarist’s role, and he resents playing rhyhtm or bass. Yet when you hand him the lead role, he stumbles through it. He’s at his best coming in from the right, simple as that, and the sooner he gets this through his skull, the better off we all are.

Just as vital as where he plays is when he scores. He’s had a feast-and-famine kind of season, scoring goals in bunches and then disappearing altogether. This was true in the first half of the season when he’d put together a string of three or four games in which he’d tally, or a game in which he’d get a hat-trick, only to do little to nothing else for a stretch of games. It’s been especially in the season as a whole, in which the feast came in the first half and the famine has lasted for almost the entire second. Here’s hoping, then, that that goal against Man U unleashes the beast within and he can go on a tear to close out the season. With Giroud out, we need him now more than ever, and these last three games present him a sparkling opportunity to lead the team across the line, disproving his critics wrong and earning plaudits for a flurry of goals that puts him in the top ten, if not the top five, in the Prem. He’s caught in a four-way log-jam at 12 along with Cazorla, Rooney, and Dzeko, and three goals in our last three games should be enough to finish in the top ten. I’ll therefore adjust my call for goals from my previous post, hoping that Walcott can add at least one to our tally. Come on, Theo. You know you want it!

Redknapp’s talkin’ some trash ahead of Saturday’s match

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Tomorrow’s run-in with QPR just a got a little saucier thanks to a helping of trash-talk on offer from manager Harry Redknapp. One would think that a team just relegated would be ready to just roll over as its players eye Mediterranean beaches and frou-frou cocktails. Instead, Redknapp was full of tough talk as he addressed our impending raid on Loftus Road. Turns out he was addressing rumors concerning keeper Júlio César, saying:

[César] wants to go to Arsenal? Arsène Wenger will be here tomorrow. If he’s interested, I’m sure he’ll speak to me. [César’s] a top, top goalkeeper. There’s no doubt about that. He’s a Brazil international so to play in the Championship next year would be difficult…It would take a good offer [to move to another team]. You’ve got to get what you feel is value for him. He’s going to cost decent money if anyone wants to buy hims. He’s a good goalkeeper.

Okay. Hardly full of piss and vinegar. Redknapp seems rather resigned to César’s departure, and it makes sense. The man is 33 and hardly wants to waste a year trying to win the Championship when teams (including us) are sniffing around and can offer Champions League play instead. Of the teams at the top, we’re the only ones with anything resembling an unsettled keeper situation. I’ve suggested in the past that we pursue a seasoned keeper, one willing to play a mentor’s role while accepting less playing time. I don’t know César well enough to claim that he would like that role—is the prospect of sitting for a team contending for the Prem title and playing in the Champions League enticing enough, or would he prefer actual playing time for a mid-table team instead?

It would be a tough decision for him to make should an offer be made, but as QPR’s season fades, we’re bound to hear more stories concerning Cesar’s availability, as well as that of Rémy and Samba, among others. As we turn our attention towards the actual game, will we see more spirited-performances from the likes of César and Rémy, not so much to try to win as to audition for a role with us next year? We saw touches of that when we went to Upton Park in October amid stories linking us to Mohamed Diamé, who opened the scoring with a stunner of a goal before we set things right with a 3-1 winner.

I’m not seeing it, frankly. While we should be wary of getting bogged down in a lethargic affair, and we should likewise be prepared for a more-free-wheeling, pressure-free game full of wild abandon from a team no longer worried about anything. They’re finally and fully relegated, so they might just be content to knock around, or they might be happy to get nutty. We’ll see. We are, after all, facing a team that has won just four Prem league games, although they have managed to draw at home against Chelsea, Everton, Spurs, and Man City, keeping four points against top-table teams. For comparisons, we’ve kept five points against the same (beating Spurs and drawing with Everton and Man U). This is a team that can park the bus just fine when it needs to, and with César in the back, this could turn into a sticky one.

Then again, this is a team that has just won twice in 17 home matches, keeping just 14 of 51 available points while being outscored 25-12. They’re averaging less than a goal a game. However, it’s a touch undignified for us to dabble too much in statistics. This is, after all, a club that saw fit to let Joey Barton play for it. One regret of mine is that Gervinho won’t have a chance to slap him around as he did last year against Newcastle. Absent that, we’ll just have to come in and throw our weight around general. We have a lot of players due for a goal, and it’s been a while since we’ve laid gave anyone a proper thrashing. Let’s have tomorrow turn into a goal-fest (for us, of course). I’m calling for goals from Cazorla, Podolski, and Ramsey, not because I’m overconfident, but because we should approach this game as a pack of starved wolves.

Final score: AFC 4-1 QPR.