Odds of a Draxler signing now at 1/5…

It’s getting hard to ignore the buzz around Julian Draxler, a buzz that is approximately on-par with a squadron of helicopters, but we’ve been here before, most recently with Gonzalo Higuain, and we all know how that turned out, for better or for worse. Before going any further, it’s worth mentioning that Higuain’s current club didn’t advance from the Champions League group-stage. We did. Napoli sits third in Serie A, twelve points off of Juve’s pace. We are currently top of the league (try not to chant that, even mentally). Moving on.

My point here is to remind ourselves that anything can happen, including Draxler signing for Arsenal now or never, and that Arsenal, with or without Draxler, are in fine shape. However, the prospect of such a talented player joining in January keeps me drawing me like a moth to flame. Pouring petrol all over said flame are the likes of John Cross, who reports that we’ve made a bid of around £25m—well-short of Schalke’s valuation and of Draxler’s £37m buy-out clause. Even more intriguing, Jan Aage Fjørtoft, who accurately called the Ozil transfer a few hours before it was officially announced, has chimed in with a similar tweet, saying “I understand that Schalke and Arsenal have agreed a fee. If he will leave now I don’t know. But this is latest info”. Of course, this is little more than window-dressing, albeit some fancy dressing at that. Unlike Cross or other paid outlets, I can’t discern a financial motive in Fjørtoft’s role here; posting on twitter just doesn’t pay the bills (even if there is some spillover to his role as a tv commentator).

No, more interesting to me than these sources is how the betting sites rate a potential Draxler move. In the last few days, the fractional odds for Draxler to Arsenal have now dropped to as low as 1/5, meaning a £5-bet wins a measly £1. Other clubs to which Draxler has been linked, such as Chelsea or Man City, come in at relative long shots of 33/1. The tabloids, blogs, and other sources draw their lifeblood by sucking on the hopes and dreams of fans desperate to see their clubs sign some big names. Betting sites, by contrast, aren’t necessarily in the business of peddling stories; they make their money by trying to accurately assess the odds on player-movement so that they’re not paying out more than they take in. As such, it seems to me that they are putting their money where theirs mouth are to a greater extent than tabloids. It’s still a long way from confirmation, of course, but then again, there is news of a press conference for Monday, most likely to show off the new Puma kits for next year, but who’s to say that we won’t see Draxler in one?

The Telegraph, among others, describe Draxler as “the German forward who is desperate to move to the Emirates this month” and goes on to say that he’s the one who is “forcing the issue” of completing the move before the transfer-window shuts. The “when”, in addition the “how much”, seems to be the issue moreso than the “if.” Of course, if we could bring in Draxler now, that’s far-better than waiting. Even if he’s not ready to play centrally, he’d be far-more expensive in the summer, and with Chelsea moving Mata, Chelsea’s soul-less remorseless player-eating-machine might start casting its baleful, hungry eyes salaciously about. If we’re serious in pursuing Draxler, and it seems we are, by all means sign him now.

We’re down to five business days before the transfer-window closes. As Arsène has claimed, most big deals happen in the window’s final days. Well, those days are upon us. I’d love to see Arsène prove his own words true, through and through. Arsène? What say you?

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16 thoughts on “Odds of a Draxler signing now at 1/5…

  1. Anonymous

    best reason to sign him migth just be to keep him away from mourinho, we don't need another midfielder, not at 40m or whatever. even if AW wants to convert him to a striker thats a project for next year, so it won't help us much this year imo.

  2. Anonymous

    I'd disagree with the previous comment, get him in now and training as a striker, give him some game time against some of the easier teams n then by the start of next season he could conceivably be ready…

  3. Anonymous

    the guy's 1.87m and young and talented enough to convert/adapt to the middle. he has the size and tools to play there, if Wenger plays him there against inferior teams (a long list at this point!). his injury actually would give him more time to train for that change, I think.sign him!

  4. Anonymous

    Hi, Richard–deleted your comment because it appeared twice for some reason (identical to the one above). I agree that an eye to the long term is necessary; for as good as we've been to this point, it seems to have narrowed the focus to this campaign only. Draxler's good enough to play across the midfield and has the size and potential to develop into a forward quite well, just as Henry and van Persie did.

  5. Anonymous

    I commend your description of the Chelsea player eating machine one to be feared especially with morinho at the wheel. This arsenal team will be legendary if they claim the epl without a stellar addition to the squad other big teams are punching the refresh button and arsene just pops up with that sneaky pre ozil smile

  6. Anonymous

    I've been watching him play and I think he's good enough to make the transition to striker this year. He's that good, in my opinion, and the support he'd get from Arsene as well as from other Germans who can mentor him on and off the pitch would ease him in even more smoothly. He'd be better than Bendtner sooner not later, that's for sure.

  7. Anonymous

    You guys never learn. Enjoy your team as it is…then take a pleasant surprise if anything happens. I'm not expecting anything and I believe JD is another Higuain!If you watch critically, you'll understand AW is trying to introduce a completely new brand of football. If it clicks, then striker-crazy teams may be forced to adapt. And the fulcrum of this style is Giroud. Strong, tall, skillful but no finisher. Instruction…hold up play, play midfielders on and celebrate whoever gets the goal. Track back and stand with the defense for corners and set-plays. In this regard, Giroud is the best in the world!

  8. Anonymous

    with an array of best technically gifted midfielders, Wenger may redefine world football. Barca and Spain introduced false 9…Wenger is on the verge of introducing 'Stiff 9'.

  9. Anonymous

    I think Arsenal need to get going and grab Draxler before it is too late and one of the other clubs, using Arsene's perception and Arsenal's scouting, take advantage before AW decides to jump in for good. Consider how he dawdled with Higuain and lost him when the deal seemed done and no one else seemed interested. Granted, had they bought him they might never have been able to do the Ozil deal. On the other hand, since we all fear the evil Blues and the malevolent Jose, consider what just happened to Liverpool with Salah. Everyone thought the deal was done and then, boom, along comes Jose. One may never know what might have happened last summer if Arsenal had offered 50-60 million for Suarez insted of the infamous 40M+1. Where would Arsenal be if he was the striker, with or without Ozil?In this instance, AW is worried that he might not get his money's worth if Draxler's injury prevents him from adding much this year. But it is Stan's money or that of the club and another million here or a million there is no longer an issue given the players in the game (Russian oligarchs, sheiks, US corporations, etc.) all of whom have probably even figured out how to evade the new fair play rules. If we are to believe that Arsene is signing up for another half-decade and is looking into the future, then Draxler is a part of that future. If he helps in winning one or more games in the EPL as well as the FA Cup – good. We know he cannot help in the CL meaning either they have a “Plan B” for that or he is “Plan B” and “Plan A” is for someone that can be used in both CL and in England.It is hard to tell when to trust the rumor mills which have included Levy trying to screw up this deal by preventing Schalke from getting Holtby, but in the end that is why you up the offer and not try to “low-ball” Schalke for a player of quality. Just pull the trigger!

  10. Anonymous

    Giroud may not be the best in the world, but he may just be the best link-up player we've had since Bergkamp. If he could just improve that finishing…Your second comment seems to go closer to Arsene's heart. He might be trying to build a team without a genuine, out-and-out striker. Instead, he seems to be looking to Draxler as the kind of player who can play in that position/area but interchange more fluidly with midfielders. This “Stiff 9” of yours might deserve a patent…

  11. Anonymous

    If the old fox has stumbled upon formula then Drax or no Drax, nothing changes. We must maintain our superior performance over the “smaller” teams and improve / avoid losing head to head against mancity and Chelsea but spurs, man u, Liverpool and Everton have to be swept aside no mercy these are title deciding matches. It is difficult to see Chelsea or city slipping up against the usual suspects. This is how the EPL should be, three maybe four teams in it right to the final few games. When one team has a commanding lead, challengers just hope to cement CL spots and spoilers don't bother to turn up

  12. Anonymous

    When will Arsenal fans learn to be content with what they have,when will they start appreciating the good work and effort of the players and that of Arsene? You don't win the league by having the top scorer in your Rank,you win the league by being consistent,having a team that works for one another and with a bit of luck,Arsenal have had all that this season,so let's just allow the man that see all this guy in training to decide for is best for this amazing club and stop being a crying baby.COYG

  13. Anonymous

    Arsenal is having a good team presently but if you watch Giroud's style of playing in this team, you will notice that he need a sharp and skillful striker to do the finishing. He holds the balls,bring them down but most at times, the links between him and the midfield may not be good enough in converting such chances. Man city had already scored over “a hundre” goals can't we do better than that?,J.D will be a good addition but this is for AW to decide. Gunner 4ever!.


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