|What? I should spend a little bit more?|
We certainly shouldn’t underestimate Villa, but the facts make it hard to resist—they’ve scored only seven goals at home while conceding twice that number, winning just twice from ten matches. Along the way, they’ve conceded first in seven of their last ten home-matches. They suffered a bit of a shock-loss in the FA Cup on Wednesday, losing to League One’s Sheffield United, who themselves are struggling to stay out of the drop-zone.
With facts like these in mind, it would tempting to look forward to running away with the game. However, between Aston Villa’s need to keep a point and an injury-sheet almost as long as our own, I’d imagine we’ll see a lot of deep defending as Villa simply park that bus and hope to withstand our pressure. The trap that we might then set for ourselves is to apply non-stop pressure, trying to pick apart a defense that might look to keep ten men behind the ball. We saw it with Chelsea, and we saw it again with Cardiff. The trap that we’d set would be to pin Villa back through constant pressure, dominating possession and forcing Villa to defend with ten men. This would play right into their hands. Even if they do attempt the occasional counter-attack, it would likely be with Benteke and perhaps Agbonlahor (if he’s available) while the rest hang back and hope for the best.
Therefore, it might be in our interests to concede possession from time to time to draw the Villans forward—why not give them the ball in their defensive third? Instead of pressing up the pitch right away, giving them a chance to explore would lure them out, giving us more room to work in behind. It worked to devastating effect against Tottenham (not that anyone is accusing them of setting up to defend) when Sagna found Gnabry on a counter, and he sluiced through a disorganized defense to find Cazorla wide open for that first goal. Similarly, once we did manage to score against Cardiff (87 minutes in, mind you), the second goal came in part because Cardiff were forced into moving up the pitch to find an equalizer.
After all, what’s the point of possession if it’s not generating chances? Yes, keeping the ball away from the opponent is a form of defending, but we’ve played plenty of matches in which we’ve dominated possession but ended up with fewer shots on goal than our opponents. Instead of playing into Villa’s hands by passing around while nine or ten defenders shuffle-step side to side to clog the box, gift them the ball and drop back to see if they’ll take the bait. Once we have them on the hook, we can pour forward and punish them. It is, after all, how Giroud scored five minutes into the opener—Rosický found the Ox sprinting down the wing, and Ox crossed to Giroud. Those last two are back from injury, although Ox may not make an appearance after playing for the U21s midweek.
At any rate, I do think we’ll set things right with a win today, whether Arsène sees fit to follow my advice or go his own way. I rather suspect the latter, but we’ll see.
My call: Aston Villa 0-2 Arsenal, with goals from Giroud and Ramsey.
Villa have actually defended fairy well, they're only giving up a goal per game which isn't terrible but I think we'll put three past to reverse the score: 3-1.
we have to win this one to stay on pace w/ Chelsea, Citeh, and Liverpool who all won this weekend. we have some key palyers back from injury, so I hope they put Villa on their arses early and often!
The words 'We certainly shouldn't underestimate Villa' are both appropriate and true. It will be a difficult game, and we'll have to be at our best to take all three points.They arguably deserved their victory on opening day, and they certainly performed well against us on both occasions last season.
these are the sides that caused us so much trouble in recent years–it's one thing to drop points to Chelsea or Man City because they're just stacked. we've too often been guilty of dropping points against teams that we really can't afford to drop. this year we haven't except at home against Villa, but I think we'll set things right tomorrow!
There is no question that Arsenal have a revenge factor going for them that has lingered since that opening match of the season, but there is still that lingering concern given the many wounded unable to play on Monday or for a few weeks (I exclude Theo, of course). It will be up to Arsene to come up with a line-up that can handle Villa and remain healthy for all of the upcoming fixtures. As of now it appears Giroud is healthy and, hopefully, Wenger can avoid using him for 90 minutes, if only, to give some of the others opportunity to play and avoid injuries to his one true striker.
I agree wholeheartedly, not just with Giroud but with many other players. As permitted by match conditions, I hope we see two subs per match at the 60-65 minute mark–Vermaelen in for Koscielny, Bendtner for Giroud, Jenkinson for Sagna, etc. Many of the injuries we've seen might have been avoided, but who's to say? A knee injury such as Theo's can happen out of nowhere, but fatigue can magnify other issues (especially muscular ones–strains and pulls and the like). we may not see any major movement in the transfer window, but I hope we'll start to see more movement in player substitutions.