Ever since signing his new contract back in January, he just hasn’t found anything resembling form. He had started the first half of the 2012-13 campaign very slowly with only one goal in his first five appearances, just as he has this season. However, he did go on a bit a of tear, tallying 15 goals in 21 appearances. Then, come January, he hit a drought that saw him score 7 goals in 23 appearances. Whether this was down to pressure tied to proving his worth, fatigue, niggling injuries, complacency, or some combination thereof is hard to say. Having started the current campaign as slowly as he has—one goal in seven appearances—is troubling. In those seven matches, according to whoscored.com, he’s managed to take 23 shots, putting 13 on target but only converting once for a woeful conversion rate of 7.6%. When we consider that Walcott’s “typical” shot comes from inside the box and rarely at a distance of more than 12 yards, it’s of course natural that he should manage to put many of his shots on frame. Contrast this against Aaron Ramsey, who has scored taken 20 shots, put nine on target, and scored six goals for a conversion rate of 67%. While it’s unlikely that he’ll keep up that kind of finishing over the long term, consider that many of his shots have from distance and through a thicket of defenders and teammates while Walcott frequently finds himself with a clear path to goal and only the keeper to beat, albeit at a tight angle.
It wasn’t so long ago that I was suggesting that Walcott would go for 20 Prem goals. I have also wrestled with doubts about his consistency. On his day, when he combines his pace with intelligent movement and deft touch, he can eviscerate defenses and even his movement off the ball can be enough to unsettle and stretch them. However, when he contents himself with merely wandering on the wing, as he too often does, he disappears. With 42% of the Arsenal attack coming down the right flank (courtesy again of whoscored.com), it is vital that the attacking winger on that side show greater finishing ability. As it currently stands, however, too many attacks fizzle out with Walcott putting a tame shot directly at the keeper or seeing that keeper beat him to the ball. Unfortunately, Arsenal’s attacking options look desperately thin with Giroud the only first-team attacker still healthy at the moment. Youngster Serge Gnabry, after a tentaive start against Stoke, showed some positive signs and will probably be relied on heavily over the next few weeks as Walcott and Oxlade-Chamberlain work their way back from injury. Perhaps some bright performances from the German could put pressure to Walcott; seeing that there is some kind of competition for the spot might prod him from whatever torpor seems to have settled into him.
It’s not too late for Walcott to find his form. After all, he did start slowly last year before hitting his stride. Arsenal can only hope he returns from injury more determined and purposeful. Ramsey will eventually slow down, just as Giroud has after his own bright start, and Arsenal is going to need someone to step up. We may have to wait two weeks for him to even make an appearance, but here’s hoping he’ll make it worth the wait.
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Watching Theo hesitate whenever he has a goal opportunity seems to me an indication that Arsenal not only needed to sign another striker during this past summer, but also try to sell Theo for as much as some other clubs valued him at the time. His only apparent asset is speed, but he does not appear to have the instinct or drive to get beyond reaching the box or bringing the ball quickly down.The killer instinct that he lacks seemed apparent in those recent games where the goal keeper received accolades, but it may have been more due to Theo's holding on too long while either waiting for the perfect shot or not being able to decide where to shoot. Maybe Arsene's tactics of passing, passing and passing while looking for the perfect opening, has rubbed off on Walcott or maybe he just cannot operate instinctively enough.Unfortunately, his need for surgery may provide some temporary “cover” for criticism, but it is a need that should be addressed albeit at a time when the squad is so vert thin and little help is available.
I think Theo will get to a place later this season when he's playing better than he was last season. He just needs a few goals when he comes back from injury.
There has been talk in the past of being Wenger-ized (if such a term exists), of becoming too pass-happy. However, I think your prior point is more on-target. He lacks the killer instinct, the intuitive sense of when or where to put the shot. Even many of his goals last year squibbed under a keeper rather than netting cleanly, a sign that, at his best, he's still merely “pretty good”. I hope he doesn't shy away from the questions or criticisms that will inevitably come if he returns from injury (and now surgery) but fails to start scoring.
I don't mean to make too much of it because he did start slowly last season (as did the entire team). With the strong start we're off to so far, it does feel like we should have seen more fireworks from him. Here's hoping he can snap out of whatever funk he's in to regain some of the form he showed 10-12 months ago…